# Kalshi adds sector-level business metrics to its prediction markets

The new contracts, developed with alternative-data firm Carbon Arc, let users take positions on indicators such as retail traffic and app downloads rather than on individual stocks.

By The Signal Edition | Business / Prediction markets
Published: 2026-10-24T05:38:37Z
Updated: 2026-10-24T05:38:37Z
Canonical: https://www.thesignaledition.com/article/kalshi-sector-kpi-markets-jr575s
Image: https://www.thesignaledition.com/media/0dcf4b82b4b50e322e807f28998ce15c.avif (Interior of a retail store with merchandise displayed on shelves; credit: Clark Street Mercantile / Unsplash)

## Summary
- Kalshi announced sector KPI markets with data supplied by Carbon Arc on Oct. 23.
- The contracts track industry-level measures including point-of-sale data, credit-card spending, store foot traffic and app downloads.
- Business Insider reported the contracts let users express views on broad business trends without buying shares in a particular company; actual contract terms and availability can vary by market.

## A different kind of market contract

Kalshi said it launched sector-level key performance indicator markets with alternative-data provider Carbon Arc, adding a new way for customers to take positions on business activity. The company’s Oct. 23 announcement describes contracts based on measures including credit-card spending, point-of-sale data, retail foot traffic and app downloads. The data for the new contracts is provided by Carbon Arc, according to Kalshi. [1](https://news.kalshi.com/p/announcing-sector-kpi-markets-with-carbon-arc)

The launch focuses on broad categories of activity rather than a single company’s share price. Business Insider reported that users could, for example, take a view on AI-app downloads overall instead of wagering on downloads for ChatGPT alone. The publication framed the contracts as a way to express a thesis about a business trend without buying stock as a proxy for it. [2](https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-kpi-contracts-prediction-markets-trends-data-2026-10)

## Why the metrics matter

The indicators are examples of alternative data: measurements of customer behavior or company activity that may offer a timely signal about an industry. Business Insider described hedge funds’ use of information such as retail foot traffic and weather patterns in investment research. Kalshi executive Jack Such told the publication that a stock may move for reasons unrelated to a trader’s underlying view, and said the company wanted to extend its existing corporate KPI markets across sectors. [2](https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-kpi-contracts-prediction-markets-trends-data-2026-10)

Carbon Arc chief executive Kirk McKeown told Business Insider that the partnership is intended to make this kind of data more accessible to smaller traders. That is the company’s stated aim, not evidence that the contracts provide the same information, protections or outcomes as institutional research. The reporting does not establish how widely the new markets will be used or whether their prices will prove useful indicators of economic activity. [2](https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-kpi-contracts-prediction-markets-trends-data-2026-10)

## What remains unclear

Kalshi’s announcement lists the types of measures the contracts may track but does not, in the material reviewed, provide a full inventory of the markets, their individual settlement rules or the specific underlying datasets for each one. Those details matter: a contract’s definition, measurement period and resolution source determine what an outcome means. Traders should consult each market’s terms rather than assume that sector-level data is interchangeable with company results or an investment in an index. [1](https://news.kalshi.com/p/announcing-sector-kpi-markets-with-carbon-arc)

The move comes as prediction-market operators expand into corporate and economic indicators, a category that can blur distinctions between forecasting and investing. This report concerns the product launch only; it makes no claim about the legality or regulatory treatment of any particular KPI contract. Neither the announcement nor the independent launch coverage reviewed here resolves those questions. [1](https://news.kalshi.com/p/announcing-sector-kpi-markets-with-carbon-arc) [2](https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-kpi-contracts-prediction-markets-trends-data-2026-10)

## Reporting sources
1. [Kalshi News: Announcing sector KPI markets with Carbon Arc](https://news.kalshi.com/p/announcing-sector-kpi-markets-with-carbon-arc) (2026-10-23)
2. [Business Insider: Kalshi wants its new contracts to be a way to predict where markets are heading without buying stocks](https://www.businessinsider.com/kalshi-kpi-contracts-prediction-markets-trends-data-2026-10) (2026-10-23)