Cook Political Report moves Minnesota Senate race toward GOP, shifts South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats

Three ratings change

The Cook Political Report on Tuesday changed its ratings in three U.S. Senate races, moving two Republican-held seats in the South toward Democrats and one Democratic-held seat in Minnesota toward Republicans, according to an analysis by Senate and governors editor Jessica Taylor. ^{[1] [2]}

South Carolina moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Minnesota moved from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, the forecaster said. ^{[1] [3]}

Taylor wrote that in Senate contests the quality of individual candidates can be "magnified in ways that defy national trends." Cook said the three moves do not change its overall Senate outlook; the rest of its analysis is available only to subscribers. ^[1]

Minnesota tightens

The Minnesota seat is open because Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination in August over Rep. Angie Craig and faces Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter. ^[8]

The Washington Examiner and Just the News both described the Minnesota change as one of the only Senate rating shifts toward Republicans by a major forecaster this cycle. ^{[2] [3]}

Cook said Republicans have centered their campaign on the state's welfare fraud scandal, hoping voter concern about corruption attaches to Flanagan, and that recent polling shows her slightly underperforming the national environment. ^[1]

A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll released last week had Flanagan at 45% and Tafoya at 42%, Newsweek reported, after the two were tied at 42% in September. Sabato's Crystal Ball made the same Likely-to-Lean move days earlier. Just the News put Flanagan's RealClearPolitics polling lead at 3.2 points. ^{[4] [3]}

South Carolina and Mississippi

In South Carolina, Republican Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat of her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, won the GOP nomination in August by defeating Rep. Ralph Norman. She faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician. ^{[7] [6]}

Recent public polls there have been close. InsiderAdvantage had Graham at 46% and Andrews at 45% in a Sept. 28-29 survey of 1,200 likely voters, and Trafalgar Group had Graham up 43% to 42%, Newsweek reported. ^[6]

In Mississippi, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney based in Columbus, and independent Ty Pinkins. Public polls have consistently shown Hyde-Smith ahead, including a Wedgewood Polls survey from Oct. 12-14 that had her leading Colom 52% to 48% head to head, according to Newsweek. ^[5]

Colom would be Mississippi's first Democratic senator since 1982 if elected, Newsweek reported. Sabato's Crystal Ball also moved that race from Safe to Likely Republican. ^[5]

What comes next

All three races remain rated in favor of the party that currently holds the seat, under the new Cook ratings. ^[1]

In Minnesota, President Trump endorsed Tafoya in the week before the rating change, and the Justice Department has charged 15 defendants in alleged Medicaid and benefits fraud schemes involving more than $90 million, Newsweek reported. Flanagan has pointed to anti-fraud legislation passed under the Walz administration. ^[4]

Voters go to the polls on Nov. 3. Prediction markets cited by Newsweek still gave Flanagan, Graham and Hyde-Smith strong odds of winning as of their most recent reports. ^{[4] [5] [6] [8]}