Southern California fire weather watches cover Thursday and Friday as Santa Ana winds approach

A two-day watch

The National Weather Service issued fire weather watches on October 13 for parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties from Thursday morning through Friday evening, October 15–16. Its Los Angeles/Oxnard bulletin forecasts northeast mountain winds of 20–40 mph, with gusts of 50–70 mph and minimum relative humidity commonly between 8% and 20%. ^[1]

The mountain zones include the Interstate 5 corridor, Santa Monica Mountains and San Gabriel Mountains. Watches also cover selected coastal and valley zones. The service warns that conditions could support extreme fire behavior if ignition occurs. The bulletin forecasts a hazard; it does not establish that a wildfire has started. ^[1]

Drying after recent rain

The service’s October 12 forecast discussion anticipated a shift from showers and coastal hazards toward warming and drying on Wednesday. It then identified the potential for a moderate-to-strong Santa Ana wind event Thursday through Saturday, with critical fire weather possible across the region. That earlier discussion helps explain the progression to the watches issued Tuesday. ^[2]

The discussion singled out the often-windy Los Angeles and Ventura corridor as the main area of concern. It also said the threat could extend toward the Ojai Valley and interior Santa Barbara County beginning Friday. Those were forecast possibilities in the October 12 assessment, rather than confirmation that every mentioned area was already under a watch. ^[2]

What comes next

The October 13 bulletin says the watches are likely to become Red Flag Warnings by Wednesday and urges residents near wildland interfaces to prepare for a possible fire. That expected upgrade remains a forecast at this stage. The distinction between the present watch and a subsequent warning matters when interpreting the alert’s timing and level of certainty. ^[1]