Experts say Byron Donalds' gas-and-nuclear plan may not lower Florida electric bills

Donalds' approach

Republican Byron Donalds, the congressman running for Florida governor, has made natural gas and nuclear power the core of his pitch on electricity costs. At an August rally in Tarpon Springs, he said, "More talk of more solar farms and wind farms is not going to lower utility bills in this state, or quite frankly, any state," the Tampa Bay Times reported on Oct. 15. ^[1]

Campaign spokesperson Gates McGavick told the Times that expanding gas capacity and adding nuclear "will allow Florida to be a leader in energy production and drive down costs with predictable and long-lasting sources of energy." The campaign did not provide further detail when asked. Donalds has separately called solar power a "fad" and voiced support for small modular reactors, the Florida Phoenix reported. ^{[1] [3]}

What experts said

Four experts the Times consulted questioned whether the plan would lower bills. Florida State University economist Mark McNees said, "A gas plant is cheap to build and costs more to run when gas prices spike," while nuclear plants carry construction risk and customers "can end up paying for a plant that's late, over budget, or never finished." ^[1]

Brooke Ward of the advocacy group Food & Water Action told the paper that the plan "would most definitely lead to higher electricity bills for all Floridians," and Susan Glickman of The CLEO Institute called it "a big red flag" that Donalds is pushing what she described as the most expensive form of power. ^[1]

Jolly's alternative

Democrat David Jolly wants to cap utilities' allowed return on equity at the national average, appoint Public Service Commission members who accept climate science and push utilities toward more solar. He cited Florida Power & Light's approved 10.95% midpoint return. "A 10% profit is pretty healthy, particularly when it's guaranteed," Jolly told the Times. ^[1]

Ron Nelson of Current Energy Group, who has testified in Florida utility cases for the state's Office of Public Counsel, told the paper that Florida's allowed profit rates are "a problem" and that they feed directly into customers' bills. ^[1]

Why bills are an issue

Florida generates about three-quarters of its electricity from natural gas and about 8% from solar, according to the Times. Bills jumped in 2022 when gas prices more than doubled after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Duke Energy has said it will seek another base-rate increase in Florida next year. Marketplace has also examined why Florida power bills are high. ^{[1] [4]}

The race

Donalds, whose running mate is Bryan Avila, and Jolly, running with Gwen Graham, won their party primaries on Aug. 18. The general election is Nov. 3. ^[5]

Voters will not see the two on a debate stage. Jolly announced on Sept. 20 that he would not debate Donalds, which the Times reported makes it the first Florida governor's race in more than 50 years without a televised debate. ^[2]